Track record

Every view published, with its conviction and status. Nothing is ever filtered out.

Hit rate

67%

2 of 3 resolved

Wrong

each carries a post-mortem

Open

excluded from the hit rate

Published	Company	Conviction	Status	The view
18 Feb 2026	SYS	high	Open	The currency tailwind that has flattered four years of margin is being quietly eaten by wage inflation, and the reported growth rate is a worse guide to the next three years than the falling net margin is.
14 Oct 2025	EFERT	medium	Working	The market is pricing Engro Fertilizers as though the current gas tariff is permanent, when the pass-through record suggests most of a further increase would reach the farmgate within two quarters.
11 Jun 2025	SYS	low	Closed	The Gulf expansion is being valued as new growth when it is largely lower-margin work replacing hiring capacity that would otherwise have gone to North American clients.
4 Feb 2025	EFERT	medium	Wrong	Subsidy reform would compress fertiliser margins through 2025 as the sector lost its cost advantage faster than it could reprice.

What each status means

Open: Published, not yet resolved. Excluded from the hit rate — counting an unresolved call in either direction would be dishonest.
Working: The argument is playing out broadly as written. Counts as a hit.
Closed: The argument ran its course and was broadly right; the view is retired. Counts as a hit.
Wrong: The argument was wrong. Counts as a miss, and carries a post-mortem explaining what was missed.

A view moves from open to working, closed or wrong when the evidence arrives. It never moves back. If a thesis marked wrong later turns out to have been right about something, that becomes a new dated view rather than an edit to an old one — the record of what was believed and when is the thing being published here.

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